中国经济快速发展的原因英语作文

中国经济快速发展的原因英语作文

dear michael,

china's economic growth has now slowed for seven consecutive quarters and the bears are arguing not only is real growth lower than the headline number but that a further sharp slowdown in china's economy is inevitable.

certainly a quick recovery from the 7.7%pace of growth in the first three quarters of this year to the double-digit growth rates of the recent past is not on the cards.indeed it is more likely that we will see growth over the next two to three years in the 6.5%8%range,with some possibility for slightly higher growth beyond that time horizon,if the new leaders can introduce the right reforms.

the main causes of the slowdown are the weak external sector,with the shrinkage of net exports subtracting almost a half a percentage

point of economic growth in the first three quarters this year,and softening investment,particularly for property.but with china's broad external surplus at a 10-year low in the first half of this year,absent a complete european melt down(in which case all bets are off),the drag on growth from the external sector is not likely to worsen significantly from here.the bigger worry is property investment,which is growing at barely half the pace of 2011 but still twice as fast as the underlying economy.if property investment moderates further for several additional quarters,gdp growth could slide to under 7%.

on a more bullish note,consumption demand played a more positive role in generating economic growth last year as both private and government consumption as a share of gdp notched up their biggest increases in more than a decade.the growth of average disposable income of urban residents relative to gdp growth in the first three quarters is even more favorable this year than last,providing the foundation for relatively strong private consumption growth again this year,helping to cushion any further slowdown in property investment.

if the government strengthens its policies to rebalance the sources of

economic growth by continuing to allow the value of the renminbi to be mostly market determined,further liberalizing deposit interest rates,and eliminating unwarranted subsidies for industrial energy consumption,the sources of china's economic growth could be gradually rebalanced away from investment in favor of private consumption expenditure,thus putting china's growth on a more sustainable path.

adopting this policy package is a not an unlikely outcome of the upcoming leadership transition.it is one thing for the hu jintao wen jiabao leadership to go out of office on a weak economic note-after all they achieved the highest average 10 year economic growth in recorded chinese history.

it is quite another for the xi jinping-li keqiang leadership coming into office to contemplate a further deterioration of china's economic performance in their first years.the intellectual case for an accelerated pace of economic reform has been

well established in china.if xi and li can overcome the entrenched vested interests that have slowed reform to a crawl in recent years they will be laying the foundation for stronger economic growth over the medium term,say something in the 7.5%8.5%range beginning in

about three years.

best regards,

nick