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Unit 12 Opinion Polls
Part A Pre-listening Task
Additional questions for discussion
1. What factors make an opinion poll successful?
There are several key factors in order to make an opinion poll successful. First, there must be a large enough sample. Second, the sample of a poll must be well selected and highly representative. Third, interview questions must be properly designed and presented. And finally, the data collected from a poll must be correctly analyzed and reported. To achieve all those things, people who conduct an opinion poll must have relevant training and experience, take their work seriously, and perform their duties in a responsible as well as skillful manner.
2. Do you think opinion polls are a true reflection of public opinion? Why or why not? I believe opinion polls do reflect public opinions. As to how true the reflection is, or how reliable the poll data are, it depends to a large extent on how scientific the selection of the sample, the design of the questions, and the operation of the polling process are. There has been abundant evidence throughout the world over the years that good opinion polls give accurate results and bad polls produce unreliable information that would not be useful at all. So if you want reliable information, you have to make sure that the opinion poll is done right.
3. How much can policy makers rely on opinion polls to help them make decisions?
Policy makers can make good use of the information from public opinion polls to help them make decisions. Opinion polls often provide valuable information about the public's priorities and viewpoints. Policy makers may become better informed if they include the results of such polls in their assessment of the overall situation. Of course, the policy-making process is a complicated one and it involves aspects that go beyond the public sentiment. As a result, policy makers cannot be expected to make their decisions by solely relying on opinion polls. Part B Listening Tasks I Language and Culture:
1. Background information: An opinion poll is a survey of public opinion on a certain subject. The making of a poll involves five essential steps: 1) the research design, or how to plan a poll; 2) the sample or whom to ask; 3) the question design, or what to ask; 4) techniques of collecting data, or how to ask; and 5) the analysis of the findings. Opinion polls were used as early as 1824 by two American newspapers to test the strength of the presidential candidates. The polling methods used in those polls, however, were very crude as the samples were haphazardly selected. It was not until the 1930s that more scientific methods were introduced in public opinion polling, which led to the huge popularity of polls in
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modern times. Now opinion polls have become an integral part of social life in many countries. National and statewide polls regularly sample public opinion on different topics and publish the results in newspapers and magazines. The best-known polls are the Harris Poll and the Gallup Poll. In our country, opinion polls have also become more widely used and accepted. And it is likely that they are to play a more important role in our life in the future. 2. In some car parks it now costs ... for half an hour.
Parking a car in a public car park can be very expensive, especially in downtown areas. For example, parking a car for half an hour may cost you $10 in lower Manhattan, New York City. So most people will not go to a public car park unless they can't find a parking space in the street. Or they simply take trains or other means of transport when they go downtown. 3. ... I don't see what you're getting at.
... I don't understand what you are trying to say.
4. I don't know anyone who doesn't think they're too high. Everyone I know thinks petrol prices are too high. 5. graded charging system:
a charging system that is not fixed but varies (according to how far from the city center a car park is)
6. So what's to stop these goods being transported by train or even via canal? Is there any reason for not transporting these goods by train or even via canal?
percentage n. 百分比 absurd a. 荒谬的，荒唐的 inner a. 内部的
nominal a. (价格或金额)微不足道的 penalize v. 予以处罚
prohibitive a. (价格或收费)使人望而却步的 tram n. 有轨电车
lorry n. (BrE)卡车，运货车 via prep. 通过，凭借 canal n. 运河
car park (汽车)停车场 Opinion Polls
Man: Do you know the thing that's always struck me as odd about opinion polls? Woman: What's that?
Man: The percentages. Like recently there was a survey about what people thought about traffic, and petrol prices, and public car parks. (Question 1) In some car parks it now costs something like 5 pounds to park a car for half an hour. Woman: Yeah, but I don't see what you're getting at.
Man: What I mean is the percentages in the results. So there might be 70% of people who
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complained about high petrol prices, and 60% who want to see the traffic reduced, and 65% who think car park charges are too high. Does that mean that there are 35% who actually think the charges are OK and would even be prepared to pay more, (Question 2) and another 30% who think petrol prices are OK? I mean that's absurd. I don't know anyone who doesn't think they're too high.
Woman: Well, actually I think we should pay more. Man: Come on, you're joking.
Woman: No, seriously. I think we should pay more for petrol, even twice as much maybe, and certainly far more for inner city car parks. Man: But why?
Woman: More taxes should be charged on petrol, I think, to discourage people from using cars, and a kind of graded charging system for car parks depending on how far they are from the city center.
Man: What do you mean?
Woman: Well, if you park your car quite far from the city center then you pay a nominal amount as a kind of reward for not polluting the city center.(Question 3 & 4) Well, the closer you get to the center, the more you are penalized. Prices in the center should be totally prohibitive. I mean with an efficient bus or tram service there's no excuse for using cars. Man: Yeah, but you can't penalize people who don't use their car to go into town. I mean if you doubled the price of petrol, it would cost people a fortune to go anywhere, even on short trips, and especially on holidays.
Woman: Don't use your car then. Use a train.
Man: But what about lorries? I mean they use a lot of petrol to transport goods from one place to another.
Woman: So what's to stop these goods being transported by train or even via canal? Man: Well, anyway, I still can't believe (Question 5) that 30% of those people who said car park charges were OK all think the same as you.
Woman: Well, maybe that's where you are wrong. Just think about what I've said and you'll realize that perhaps it's not so stupid as it sounds.
Listen to the story and choose the right answers to the questions you hear. Questions:
1. What items are surveyed in the opinion poll mentioned in the conversation? A. Traffic, petrol prices, and public car parks. B. Public transport, petrol prices, and car parks. C. Public transport, car parks, and vehicle taxes. D. Traffic, vehicle taxes, and road taxes.
正确答案：A. Traffic, petrol prices, and public car parks.
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2. What does the man find absurd about the survey?
A. That three different things are examined in a single survey.
B. That the results of the survey are contrary to everybody's expectation.
C. That it indicates there are people who are willing to pay more for petrol and car parking. D. That it indicates there are people who would rather take buses or trains than drive. 正确答案：C. That it indicates there are people who are willing to pay more for petrol and car parking.
3. Which of the following best reflects the woman's view about car parking? A. People should be heavily fined for parking offenses.
B. The nearer to the city center you park your car, the higher the charge.
C. Car park charges should be made as high as possible to deter people from using cars. D. People cannot park their cars for longer than half an hour in the city center. 正确答案：B. The nearer to the city center you park your car, the higher the charge. 4. Which problem is the woman most concerned about according to the conversation? A. Heavy traffic in the city. B. Pollution in the city center.
C. The inefficiency of public transport.
D. The high cost of building car parks in the city center. 正确答案： Pollution in the city center.
5. Which of the following describes the man's attitude toward opinion polls? A. Positive. B. Neutral. C. Skeptical. D. Critical.
正确答案：C. Skeptical.
Listen to the conversation again and decide if the statements you hear are true or false. Statements:
(F) 1. Both the man and the woman have been interviewed in the poll mentioned in the text. (T) 2. The survey finds that a majority of people complained about heavy traffic. (F) 3. The woman thinks that people should pay twice as much for inner city parking. (T) 4. The woman thinks that raises in petrol price and parking charge can discourage people from using cars.
(F) 5. According to the man, it's difficult for people to use public transport to go on short trips or holidays.
(F) 6. The woman does not object to people's use of cars away from the town center. (F) 7. It can be inferred that 30% of those interviewed in the poll think the same as the
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woman.
(F) 8. The man finally agrees with the woman that opinion polls are not so stupid as he first thought.
Speaking Task I:
What do you think of the text you've just heard? Exchange views with your partner. Reflections: Reflections:
Comment on the conversation in which two speakers were discussing the reliability of opinion polls. What does the man feel odd about the results of the poll? What is the woman's opinion with regard to petrol prices and car park charges? What does the conversation tell you about the functions and limitations of opinion polls? Exchange views with your partner. You may mention the following points in your discussion.
1. different views held by the two speakers about certain poll results 2. opinion polls reflecting highly diversified views 3. poll results -- expressed in percentages
4. interpretation of the percentages -- reasons why certain choices are made in a poll Obviously the man's view that petrol prices and car park charges were too high was shared by the majority of people interviewed in the poll. What he found odd was that there was not a complete consensus. The survey seemed to suggest that there were people who were willing to pay more, which he found absurd because it was contrary to what he believed people really thought.
The woman, however, held the very view that the man dismissed as absurd. She thought it would be necessary to impose higher taxes on petrol and charge more for inner city parking to discourage people from using their cars. And the survey showed that she was not alone in thinking so.
From the conversation, we can see how people's views on a certain issue may differ if they approach it from different perspectives. For example, while the man responded to the survey questions from a personal perspective, the woman approached the problem from the perspective of society as a whole and therefore reached a very different conclusion. This diversity of opinion is represented in polls, which provide a platform where different voices, especially those of the minority, are heard.
Of course, opinion polls also have their limitations. Polling questions usually belong to yes-or-no or agree-or-disagree types and the results, expressed in percentages, fail to inform the public of the reasons why certain answers are chosen. In the text, if the woman hadn't explained to the man what she thought about the matter, he wouldn't have had the chance to know that those with different views did have a good reason for their choice. Opinion polls might do a better job if more open questions were asked so that the public could know better why those who are interviewed in a poll think the way they do.
Speaking Tasks II:
Read the following table that shows the results of an opinion poll conducted among
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residents in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou on their attitudes toward different forms of education. Describe to your partner the results of the poll and analyze the reasons behind the data.
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The table shows that people's views on the three types of school vary at different stages of education. At the preschool stage, the percentage of people who are for private schools is 56.5%, as compared with 43.5% for public schools. Many parents favor private kindergartens because of their qualified teachers and better facilities. Apparently they think it is worthwhile to invest in education right at the beginning. The percentage of people who are for overseas study at this stage is naught, which is understandable, considering how young the children are.
For the 9-year compulsory education stage, an overwhelming majority (96.5%) of the respondents are for public schools. None of the respondents in the survey is for private schools. This is because our country has a well-established compulsory education system and the public schools are generally quite good. This also explains why only 3.5% are for overseas study at this stage. Since local schools are very good, there is no point in spending a lot of money sending children abroad to study.
At the senior middle school stage, the public school is still the first choice for a majority of people. The percentage of people who are for overseas study, however, increases to 18.5%. Perhaps they think that children are now mature enough to take care of themselves and are ready for some cross-cultural experience.
For college and higher learning, the percentage of those who are for the public school equals that of those who are for overseas study. Both are considered advantageous at this stage. Many colleges and universities in our country have a dedicated teaching staff and a fine tradition of learning, which are what appeal to prospective students. On the other hand, overseas schools have better equipment and facilities for doing research and there is a greater chance for students to be exposed to current development in science and technology. Moreover, with the quickening pace of globalization, overseas experience can serve as a big advantage in the global labor market.
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The above data will be useful to educators who must decide what types of school to establish and how to raise the quality of education at every level.
Part C Additional Listening
Listen to the passage and choose the right answers to the questions you hear. become weary of 厌烦；疲倦 pollster n. 民意测验专家 random a. 任意的，随意的 digit n. 数字
hypothetically ad. 假设地，假想地 sampling error 取样误差 census statistics 人口普查数据 finalize v. 把(计划、稿件等)最后定下来 anomaly n. 异常；反常 buck n. (美俗)美元 respondent n. 回答者
How These Pollsters Do Those Polls
Voters can become weary (疲倦的) of polls as a campaign winds down (接下), and in public, candidates invariably (总是) declare that they ignore them -- at least, the candidates who are losing. But the fact is, pollsters are good and getting better.
Most election-eve polls in 1992 predicted the voting percentages eventually won by Clinton, Bush and Perot well within the sampling margin of error. Of some 300 such polls, none projected Bush or Perot as the winner.
Typically, these polls are generated by telephone interviews with 600 to 1,000 \"likely voters\numbers are selected as random (任意的) digits by a phone-dialing computer.
Hypothetically (假设地), almost every person in America has an equal chance of being called since most households have phones. The samples may seem small, but the techniques used in polls are proven enough to be regularly accepted as evidence by the courts when election results are legally challenged. No sample is as accurate as interviewing 100 percent of the people in an election district, of course. A \"sampling error\" (取样误差) or \"margin of error\" accompanies every significant result. It is the largest possible difference that could exist between a random national sample and a poll that asked 200 million Americans the same questions. A 3 percent sampling error, for example, means that if a poll predicts that a candidate will get 45 percent of the vote, he may probably get 42 to 48 percent of the vote. (Question 3) Often, after a random sample is collected, it's compared with US Census (人口
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普查) statistics to determine the degree of agreement before the poll is finalized. This can help polling professionals correct anomalies so that they can get clients that pay them the big bucks.
The \"exit polls\" that play a key part in election night drama in American homes are even more accurate than other forecasts because the specially trained interviewers are using respondents who are known voters.
Questions:
1. How is a typical election poll conducted in the US? A. By telephone.
B. By face-to-face interviews. C. By mail.
D. By door-to-door interviews. 正确答案：A. By telephone.
2. How large is the sample for a typical election poll? A. 600 - 1,200. B. 300 - 600. C. 600 - 1,000. D. 800 - 1,200.
正确答案：C. 600 - 1,000.
3. If a poll shows a 50% support for a candidate with a 3% margin of error, what would be the probable percentage of support for him? A. 47%. B. 53%. C. 47 - 53%.
D. It depends on how large the voting population is. 正确答案：C. 47 - 53%.
4. Why are \"exit polls\" especially accurate? A. Because the interviewers are specially trained. B. Because the respondents are known voters.
C. Because the interviewers know the respondents personally. D. Because a large sample of respondents are polled. 正确答案：B. Because the respondents are known voters. 5. What is the passage mainly about?
A. Polls are remarkably accurate in predicting election results. B. Polling organizations make a lot of money from their clients. C. American voters are losing interest in election polls.
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D. The development of technology contributes greatly to the accuracy of polls. 正确答案：A. Polls are remarkably accurate in predicting election results. Leisure Time Quotable Quotes
1. The world is not run by thought, nor by imagination, but by opinion. -- Elizabeth Drew
2. The only sin which we never forgive in each other is difference of opinion. -- Ralph Emerson
3. New opinions are always suspected, and usually opposed, without any other reason but because they are not already common. -- John Locke
4. A government can be no better than the public opinion which sustains it. -- Franklin Roosevelt
5. So many men, so many opinions. -- Terence
6. It were not best that we should all think alike: it is difference of opinion that makes horse races. -- Mark Twain Movie Time Public Opinion
Oprah: Recently, you all have seen the story on the news, I'm sure, a Brinks armored truck overturned on a Miami freeway, spewing over 3.7 million dollars and causing a near riot as people snatched up the cash, some standing in the streets screaming \"Hallelujah, Jesus!\". Um, we did an informal poll of is audience, and found out that many of you said that you would keep any cash that you had found. What did you say? Woman: I would not.
Oprah: You would not keep the cash. Even if, let's say, your rent was in due, your mortgage payment...overdue... Woman: I've been there. Oprah: Been there? Would not? Woman: Lived in my car. Oprah: Lived in your car? Woman: With my children.
Oprah: So if you've been living in your car at the time the Brinks truck overturned in front of you and dropped the cash all over the street... Woman: No.
Oprah: You would have returned it.
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Woman: No, against God's rules.
Oprah: It's against God's rule. OK. Yes, Ma'am?
Woman 2: Uh, I would have considered it an act of God, perhaps, and kept the money. Oprah: You would have considered it an act of God? Woman 2: Yes.
Oprah: An act of God? OK. I, I question that. Do the money, the truck turning over at that moment and time, in that particular, you know, part of town... Woman 2: It's a chance of a lifetime.
Oprah: Chance of a lifetime, you would have thought. OK. Woman 2: Sure, sure.
Oprah: So, you would have taken the money. Woman 2: I think so, yes.
Oprah: OK, now, if they had done as they're doing now in Miami, going on the news, asking people to please return the money, and we have you on film, would you have still kept he money?
Woman 2: Perhaps. I think I would have.
Oprah: Perhaps you would have. OK, OK, whether you really needed it or not? Woman 2: It's such an opportunity.
Oprah: An act of God, you say. OK, yes, yes.
Woman 3: I teach a Sunday school class of 4- and 5-year-olds, and our subject class Sunday was what would we do if we were on the street and we found money? Would we return it? And, ur, the bottom line was it's God's rules. You always return money.
Oprah: OK. Being on the street and returning money is a little different than the Brinks truck turning over in front of you. Woman 3: Yes, but they still...
Oprah: I don't know how a Sunday school teacher explains it, but, you do see a little difference. Is there a little difference?
Woman 3: Well, not really, it's still the bottom line. Oprah: OK.
Woman 3: You know, they need to know what's right, what's wrong. Oprah: I agree. (The) bottom line is what's right, what's wrong. Woman 3: Right.
Oprah: Brinks truck has turned over in front of you. Your gas and electric bill is due. You are two months behind in your mortgage payments; they're coming to take your car, and there it is, right in front of your face, you happen to be walking down the street, you're minding your own business, the Brinks truck overturns in front of you. What do you do? Woman 4: Oprah, I would have kept every dime I could have my hands on. Oprah: You would kept every dime.
Woman 4: Yes, I would have. I have a two-year-old child, I'm a single mother. That money would provide a wonderful future in college for my child.
Oprah: Even if they were on television saying: \"Please, ma'am, give the money back\"? Woman 4: No.
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Oprah: OK. If you knew that the money belonged to somebody, another person who had lost eh money, would that have made you feel differently about it? Woman 4: Yes.
Oprah: Or is it because it's the Brinks truck and you think it's just the Brinks' truck money? Woman 4: And it's insured. That means a lot, too. Oprah: That means a lot, too. Woman 4: Yeah. It's insured. So...
Oprah: If you found money on the street that you know belonged to somebody else? Woman 4: It would have been different, sure. I would have given it back because I would have wanted someone to do the same thing for me. Oprah: For you? Woman 4: Yes.
Oprah: But it's the Brinks truck factor.
Time to Talk
Look at these pictures and describe them one by one. If possible, try also to find something relevant to talk about.
This chart shows the results of a Gallup poll on death penalty. Opinions vary from year to year. Generally speaking, however, the number of people in favor of the death penalty kept increasing from 1972 to 1994, as the percentages rose from about 57% in 1972 to 80% in 1994. Then after that the support rate of the death penalty started to drop. In six years' time, the figures dropped from 80% to around 65% in the year 2000. The poll was done in the year 2000 and I wonder if the Americans would give the same response after 911 terrorist attacks on the US.
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This picture shows the result of an opinion poll on people's attitude towards the issue of immigration. About 30% of the people say they would like to keep it at the present level, while 58% would like to have it decreased; 8% hope that it will be increased and 4% give no opinion. Perhaps the people who were polled were worried that the immigrants would take the jobs away from the local people. I heard that in Germany and France, some local people are against having more immigrants and are quite hostile to them for the same reason.
This picture shows Bush's approval ratings in four aspects -- overall job, international affairs, economy and environmental issues. The chart also shows that in the eyes of those who were polled, Bush has done a good job, as the
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approval ratings are higher than the disapproval ones in all four aspects. Even though he is low in economy and environment issues, the president is quite impressive in the overall job and in the international affairs -- about 68% versus 32%. I suppose this has something to do with his tough international policies.
Part D Home Listening booth n. 小亭；小房间
newsworthy a. 有新闻、报道价值的 methodology n. 方法论；一套方法 delinquency n. 违法；不法行为 socialization n. 适应社会；社会化 Use of Public Opinion Polls
Public opinion polls are regularly conducted and published in many countries. They measure not only support for political parties but also public opinion on a wide range of social and political issues. They are frequently published in major newspapers and are generally accepted as useful tools by businesses, political organizations, the mass media and
government, and academic research groups. Hundreds of public polling firms operate around the world. The Gallup Poll (盖洛普民意测验) and Harris Poll (哈里斯民意测验法) are among the best known in the US.
In business, polls are used to test consumers' preferences and to discover what gives a product its appeal. Responses to commercial polls help businesses in planning marketing and advertising strategies and in making changes in a product to increase its sales.
In politics, polls are used to obtain information about voters' attitudes toward issues and candidates, to put forward candidates with winning potential, and to plan campaigns. Polling organizations have also been successful in predicting the outcome of elections. By polling voters on Election Day, it is often possible to determine the probable winner even before the voting booths close.
Newspapers, magazines, radio and television are heavy users of public opinion polling information, especially political information that helps to predict election results or measure the popularity of government officials and candidates. The public's attitude toward various social, economic, and international issues is also considered newsworthy.
Governments use opinion polls to find out public sentiment (情绪) about issues of interest. They also use polling methodology (方法论) to determine unemployment rates, crime rates, and other social and economic indicators.
Opinion polls have also been employed extensively in academic research, particularly in the social sciences. They have been valuable in studying delinquency (行为不良, 错失), socialization (社会主义化), political attitudes, and economic behavior. Among the prominent (卓越的, 显著的) organizations that primarily serve academic research purposes are the
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Survey Research Center at the University of Michigan and the National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago.
Questions:
1. By whom are public opinion polls generally accepted as useful tools?
By businesses, political organizations , the mass media and government and academic research groups.
2. For what are opinion polls used by businesses?
To test consumers' preferences and to discover what gives a product its appeal. Responses to commercial polls help businesses in planning marketing and advertising strategies and in making changes in a product to increase its sales.
3. For what are opinion polls used in politics?
To obtain information about voters' attitudes toward issues and candidates, to put forward candidates with winning potential, and to plan campaigns, Polling organizations have also been successful in predicting the outcome of elections.
4. For what are opinion polls used by governments?
To find out public sentiment about issues of interest. They also use polling methodology to determine unemployment rates, crime rates, and other social and economic indicators.
5. What new media are heavy users of the information from opinion polls? Newspapers, magazines, radio and television.
6. For what are opinion polls used in academic research?
To study delinquency, socialization , political attitudes, and economic behavior / behaviour.
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